The Xpert® MTB/RIF cycle threshold value predicts M. tuberculosis transmission to close contacts in a Brazilian prospective multicenter cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Xpert® MTB/RIF rapid molecular test provides a quantitative measure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) DNA in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values. This information can be translated into mycobacterial load and used as a potential risk measure of bacterial spread for tuberculosis cases, which can impact infection control. However, the role of Ct values in assessing Mtb transmission to close contacts has not yet been demonstrated. METHODS: A prospective study was performed to investigate the association between Xpert® MTB/RIF Ct values and Mtb transmission to close contacts of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB in a multi-center Brazilian cohort. We evaluated clinical and laboratory data, such as age, sex, race, smoking habits, drug use, alcohol use, chest radiograph, Xpert® MTB/RIF results among pulmonary tuberculosis cases, and QuantiFERON(QFT)-Plus results at baseline and after six months for close contacts who had a negative result at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 1,055 close contacts of 382 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were included in the study. The median Ct values from pulmonary tuberculosis cases of QFT-Plus positive (at baseline or six months) close contacts were lower compared with those who were QFT-Plus negative. An adjusted logistic regression demonstrated that reduced Ct values from the index cases were independently associated with QFT-Plus conversion from negative to positive (OR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.12-2.32) after adjusting for clinical characteristics. CONCLUSION: Close contacts of pulmonary TB index cases exhibiting low Xpert MTB/RIF Ct values displayed higher rates of TB infection, reflecting Mtb transmission.

Isoniazid Monoresistance and Antituberculosis Treatment Outcome in Persons With Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Brazil.

Background: The high burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) is a problem to achieve the goals of the End TB Strategy by 2035. Whether isoniazid monoresistance (Hr) affects anti-TB treatment (ATT) outcomes remains unknown in high-burden countries. Methods: We evaluated determinants of ATT outcome among pulmonary TB cases reported to the National Notifiable Disease Information System (SINAN) between June 2015 and June 2019, according to drug sensitivity testing (DST) results. Binomial logistic regression models were employed to evaluate whether Hr was associated with an unfavorable ATT outcome: death or failure, compared to cure or treatment completion. Results: Among 60 804 TB cases reported in SINAN, 21 197 (34.9%) were included in the study. In this database, the frequency of unfavorable outcomes was significantly higher in those with Hr in contrast to isoniazid-sensitive persons with pulmonary TB (9.1% vs 3.05%; P < .001). Using a binomial logistic regression model, Hr was independently associated with unfavorable outcomes (odds ratio, 3.34 [95% confidence interval, 2.06-5.40]; P < .001). Conclusions: Hr detected prior to ATT was predictive of unfavorable outcomes at the national level in Brazil. Our data reinforce the need for high-TB-burden countries to prioritize DST to detect Hr. Effective treatment regimens for Hr-TB are needed to improve outcomes.

Anemia and anti-tuberculosis treatment outcome in persons with pulmonary tuberculosis: A multi-center prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major plague of humanity. People with TB (PWTB) are commonly anemic. Here, we assessed whether the severity of anemia in PWTB prior to anti-TB treatment (ATT) was a risk factor for an unfavorable outcome. METHODS: Patients ≥ 18 years old with culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary TB enrolled between 2015 and 2019 in a multi-center Brazilian cohort were followed for up to 24 months and classified according to anemia severity (mild, moderate, and severe), based on hemoglobin levels. A multinomial logistic regression model was employed to assess whether anemia was associated with unfavorable outcome (death, failure, loss to follow-up, regimen modification or relapse), compared to treatment success (cure or treatment completion). RESULTS: Among 786 participants who met inclusion criteria, 441 (56 %) were anemic at baseline. Patients with moderate/severe anemia were more HIV-seropositive, as well as more symptomatic and had higher frequencies of unfavorable outcomes compared to the other groups. Moderate/severe anemia (adjusted OR [aOR]: 7.80, 95 %CI:1.34-45.4, p = 0.022) was associated with death independent of sex, age, BMI, HIV and glycemic status. CONCLUSION: Moderate/severe anemia prior to ATT was a significant risk factor for death. Such patients should be closely monitored given the high risk of unfavorable ATT outcomes.

Possible sex difference in latent tuberculosis infection risk among close tuberculosis contacts.

OBJECTIVES: More men than women develop and die of tuberculosis (TB). Fewer data exist on sex differences in latent TB infection (LTBI). We assessed for potential sex differences in LTBI acquisition among close TB contacts. METHODS: Regional Prospective Observational Research for TB-Brazil is an observational multi-center cohort of individuals with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB and their close contacts. Participants were enrolled from five sites in Brazil from June 2015 - June 2019. Close contacts were followed for 24 months after enrollment, with LTBI defined as a positive interferon-γ release assay (IGRA; QuantiFERON 3rd or 4th generation) at baseline or 6 months. We performed univariate, bivariate, and multivariable logistic regression and propensity-score weighted models to assess odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for LTBI acquisition by birth sex among close contacts. RESULTS: Of 1093, 504 (46%) female close contacts were IGRA positive compared to 295 of 745 (40%) men. The unadjusted OR for IGRA positivity among women vs men was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.08-1.58). Bivariate adjustments yielded ORs in women vs men ranging from 1.19 to 1.33 (P-value range: <0.01-0.07). Multivariable regression and weighted models yielded similar ORs in women vs men, of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.92-1.41) and 1.15 (95% CI: 0.94-1.40), respectively. CONCLUSION: The point estimate for LTBI among close TB contacts in Brazil was higher in women, though less pronounced in multivariable models. If the sex difference in LTBI is confirmed in additional settings, studies of possible underlying differences in socio-behavioral factors or TB pathogenesis are warranted.

Visualizing the Geography of HIV Observational Cohorts With Density-Adjusted Cartograms.

BACKGROUND: Maps are potent tools for describing the spatial distribution of population and disease characteristics and, thereby, for appropriately targeting public health interventions. People with HIV (PWH) tend to live in densely populated and spatially compact areas that may be difficult to visualize on maps using unadjusted geographic or political borders. SETTING: To illustrate these challenges, we used geographic data from adult PWH at the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic (VCCC) in Nashville, Tennessee, and aggregated data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1998 to 2015. METHODS: We compared choropleth maps that use differential shading of political/geographic boundaries with density-adjusted cartograms that allow for shading and deformed boundaries according to a variable of interest, such as PWH. RESULTS: Cartograms enlarged high-burden areas and shrank low-burden areas of PWH, improving visual interpretation of where to focus HIV prevention and mitigation efforts, when compared with choropleth maps. Cartograms may also demonstrate cohort representativeness of underlying populations (eg, Tennessee for VCCC or the United States for NA-ACCORD), which can guide efforts to assess external validity and improve generalizability. CONCLUSION: Choropleth maps and cartograms offer powerful visual evidence of the geographic distribution of HIV disease and cohort representation and should be used to guide targeted public health interventions.

The Effect of Diabetes and Prediabetes on Antituberculosis Treatment Outcomes: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diabetes or prediabetes affects unfavorable treatment outcomes and death in people with tuberculosis (PWTB). METHODS: Culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible PWTB, enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort between 2015 and 2019 (N = 643) were stratified based on glycemic status according to baseline glycated hemoglobin. Unfavorable tuberculosis (TB) outcome was defined as treatment failure or modification, recurrence, or death; favorable outcome was cure or treatment completion. We corroborated the findings using data from PWTB reported to the Brazilian National System of Diseases Notification (SINAN) during 2015-2019 (N = 20 989). Logistic regression models evaluated associations between glycemic status and outcomes. RESULTS: In both cohorts, in univariate analysis, unfavorable outcomes were more frequently associated with smoking, illicit drug use, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Diabetes, but not prediabetes, was associated with unfavorable outcomes in the RePORT-Brazil (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 2.45; P < .001) and SINAN (aRR, 1.76; P < .001) cohorts. Furthermore, diabetes was associated with high risk of death (during TB treatment) in both RePORT-Brazil (aRR, 2.16; P = .040) and SINAN (aRR, 1.93; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcomes and mortality in Brazilian PWTB. Interventions to improve TB treatment outcomes in persons with diabetes are needed.

Lessons Learned from Implementation of an Interferon Gamma Release Assay to Screen for Latent Tuberculosis Infection in a Large Multicenter Observational Cohort Study in Brazil.

The interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) has emerged as a useful tool for identifying latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). This assay can be performed through testing platforms such as the QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) assay. This in vitro test has been incorporated into several guidelines worldwide and has recently been considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the diagnosis of LTBI. The possibility of systematically implementing IGRAs such as the QFT-Plus assay in centers that perform LTBI screening has been accelerated by the decreased availability of the tuberculin skin test (TST) in several countries. Nevertheless, the process to implement IGRA testing in routine clinical care has many gaps. The study utilized the expertise acquired by the laboratory teams of the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil consortium during study protocol implementation of LTBI screening of tuberculosis (TB) close contacts. RePORT-Brazil includes clinical research sites from Brazilian cities and is the largest multicenter cohort of TB close contacts in the country to date. Operational and logistical challenges faced during IGRA implementation in all study laboratories are described, as well as the solutions that were developed and led to the successful establishment of IGRA testing in RePORT-Brazil. The descriptions of the problems identified and resolved in this study can assist laboratories implementing IGRAs, in addition to manufacturers of IGRAs providing effective technical support. This will facilitate the implementation of IGRA testing in countries with large TB burdens, such as Brazil. IMPORTANCE The IGRA has emerged as a useful tool for identifying persons with LTBI. Although the implementation of IGRAs is of utmost importance, to our knowledge there is scarce information on the identification of logistical and technical challenges for systematic screening for LTBI on a large scale. Thus, the descriptions of the problems identified and resolved in this study can assist laboratories implementing IGRAs, in addition to manufacturers of IGRAs providing effective technical support. This will facilitate the implementation of IGRA testing in countries with large TB burdens, such as Brazil.

The Effect of Diabetes and Prediabetes on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission to Close Contacts.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dysglycemia is associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. METHODS: We assessed epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis and their close contacts, enrolled in a multicenter prospective cohort in Brazil. Contacts were investigated at baseline and 6 months after enrollment. QuantiFERON positivity at baseline and conversion (from negative to positive at month 6) were compared between subgroups of contacts according to glycemic status of persons with tuberculosis (PWTB) as diabetes mellitus (DM) or prediabetes. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were performed to test independent associations with baseline QuantiFERON positive and QuantiFERON conversion. RESULTS: There were 592 PWTB (153 DM, 141 prediabetes, 211 normoglycemic) and 1784 contacts, of whom 658 were QuantiFERON-positive at baseline and 106 converters. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that tuberculosis-prediabetes cases, acid-fast bacilli-positive, pulmonary cavities, and living with someone who smoked were independently associated with QuantiFERON positive in contacts at baseline. DM, persistent cough, acid-fast bacilli-positive, and pulmonary cavities in tuberculosis source cases were associated with QuantiFERON conversion. CONCLUSIONS: Contacts of persons with pulmonary tuberculosis and dysglycemia were at increased risk of being QuantiFERON positive at baseline or month 6. Increased focus on such close contacts could improve tuberculosis control.

Novel stepwise approach to assess representativeness of a large multicenter observational cohort of tuberculosis patients: The example of RePORT Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A major goal of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiological studies is to obtain results that can be generalized to the larger population with TB. The ability to extrapolate findings on the determinants of TB treatment outcomes is also important. METHODS: We compared baseline clinical and demographic characteristics and determinants of anti-TB treatment outcomes between persons enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort between June 2015 and June 2019, and the registry of TB cases reported to the Brazilian National TB Program (Information System for Notifiable Diseases [SINAN]) during the same time period. Multivariable regression models adjusted for the study site were performed using second-generation p-values, a novel statistical approach. Associations with unfavorable treatment outcomes were tested for both RePORT-Brazil and SINAN cohorts. FINDINGS: A total of 1,060 culture-confirmed TB patients were enrolled in RePORT-Brazil and 455,873 TB cases were reported to SINAN. Second-generation p-value analyses revealed that the cohorts were strikingly similar with regard to sex, age, use of antiretroviral therapy and positive initial smear sputum microscopy. However, diabetes, HIV infection, and smoking were more frequently documented in RePORT-Brazil. Illicit drug use, the presence of diabetes, and history of prior TB were associated with unfavorable TB treatment outcomes; illicit drug use was associated with such outcomes in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: There were important similarities in demographic characteristics and determinants of clinical outcomes between the RePORT-Brazil cohort and the Brazilian National registry of TB cases.

ACCOUNTING FOR DEPENDENT ERRORS IN PREDICTORS AND TIME-TO-EVENT OUTCOMES USING ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS, VALIDATION SAMPLES, AND MULTIPLE IMPUTATION.

Data from electronic health records (EHR) are prone to errors, which are often correlated across multiple variables. The error structure is further complicated when analysis variables are derived as functions of two or more error-prone variables. Such errors can substantially impact estimates, yet we are unaware of methods that simultaneously account for errors in covariates and time-to-event outcomes. Using EHR data from 4217 patients, the hazard ratio for an AIDS-defining event associated with a 100 cell/mm3 increase in CD4 count at ART initiation was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.68-0.80) using unvalidated data and 0.60 (95%CI: 0.53-0.68) using fully validated data. Our goal is to obtain unbiased and efficient estimates after validating a random subset of records. We propose fitting discrete failure time models to the validated subsample and then multiply imputing values for unvalidated records. We demonstrate how this approach simultaneously addresses dependent errors in predictors, time-to-event outcomes, and inclusion criteria. Using the fully validated dataset as a gold standard, we compare the mean squared error of our estimates with those from the unvalidated dataset and the corresponding subsample-only dataset for various subsample sizes. By incorporating reasonably sized validated subsamples and appropriate imputation models, our approach had improved estimation over both the naive analysis and the analysis using only the validation subsample.

Lack of Weight Gain During the First 2 Months of Treatment and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Independently Predict Unsuccessful Treatment Outcomes in Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Weight change may inform tuberculosis treatment response, but its predictive power may be confounded by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: We prospectively followed up adults with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary tuberculosis receiving standard 4-drug therapy (isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol) in Brazil. We examined median weight change 2 months after treatment initiation by HIV status, using quantile regression, and unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcome (treatment failure, tuberculosis recurrence, or death) by HIV and weight change status, using Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 547 participants, 102 (19%) were HIV positive, and 35 (6%) had an unsuccessful outcome. After adjustment for confounders, persons living with HIV (PLWH) gained a median of 1.3 kg (95% confidence interval [CI], -2.8 to .1) less than HIV-negative individuals during the first 2 months of tuberculosis treatment. PLWH were at increased risk of an unsuccessful outcome (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 2.1-10.9). Weight change was independently associated with outcome, with risk of unsuccessful outcome decreasing by 12% (95% CI, .81%-.95%) per 1-kg increase. CONCLUSIONS: PLWH gained less weight during the first 2 months of tuberculosis treatment, and lack of weight gain and HIV independently predicted unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Weight, an easily collected biomarker, may identify patients who would benefit from alternative treatment strategies.

Hemoglobin may contribute to sex differences in mortality among HIV-infected persons in care.

BACKGROUND: Some retrospective studies have found that HIV-infected women have a higher mortality risk than men after adjusting for baseline characteristics, while others have not. Anemia is a known predictor of HIV-related mortality. We assessed whether anemia contributed to the sex difference in mortality in our cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among HIV-infected persons in care at the Comprehensive Care Center (Nashville, TN) between 1998 and 2009. Cox proportional hazards models compared time from first clinic visit to death and AIDS-defining events (ADE), adjusted for baseline characteristics with and without baseline hemoglobin. RESULTS: Of 3,633 persons, 879 (24%) were women. Women had lower median baseline hemoglobin compared to men: 12.4 g/dL (inter-quartile range (IQR) 11.3-13.4) vs. 14.4 (IQR 13.1-15.5), respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable models without hemoglobin, the risk of death was higher among women: hazard ratio (HR) 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17, 1.82; P=0.001). In multivariable models with hemoglobin, the risk of death in women was diminished and no longer statistically significant: HR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93, 1.55; P=0.17). The risk of ADE was higher among women in both models, but not statistically significant: HR 1.1 (95% CI 0.85-1.42; P=0.46) in the model without hemoglobin and 1.11 (95% CI 0.82-1.48; P=0.50) in the model with hemoglobin. Hemoglobin was a strong predictor of death: HR 0.88 per 1 g/dL increase (95% CI 0.83, 0.93; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: In our study population of HIV-infected persons in care, women had lower baseline hemoglobin, and lower hemoglobin contributed to their higher risk of ADE and death.